2nd Law of Thermodynamics:
The total entropy, or chaos, of an isolated system can never decrease over time.
With the coronavirus pandemic, I guess everyone is looking at nature differently…again. Civilization is on its knees and, for not the first time in recorded history, a microbe is responsible for all the privation and adversity. And so, the crisis has had me thinking about some of nature’s fundamental theories and laws: Darwin’s theories of evolution, the Golden Ratio (I promise I will devote a separate, future blog just to this ratio alone), the laws of physics, and the laws of…thermodynamics. While most people have at least some knowledge of / familiarity with the first three, only engineers (like myself) tend to know anything about thermodynamics. And that is unfortunate because the laws of thermodynamics – or at least one of them – can provide an interesting glimpse into nature, life, and civilization, in general.
The second law of thermodynamics, the law of entropy, basically says that every transaction in nature…increases disorder – or chaos – within that system. Basically, in the end, chaos prevails for every single “system” in nature. It is, perhaps, the most pessimistic law of nature. Taken to the extremes, it means that all of humanity’s hard work – all of humanity’s accomplishments – will, ultimately, amount to nothing and end up a heap of…chaos and randomness. Nature will take over. For real world evidence of the second law at work, think of all the famous images of ruins through the ages: the Pyramids of Egypt and the Americas, countless Roman and Greek collapsed structures, unearthed cities, Chernobyl, etc. All of them once took an enormous amount of effort to build and to maintain. In the end, Mother Nature will reclaim them (if she hasn’t already). The final, resting state…will be nothing like the associated famed images.
Of course, the second law has some pretty grim implications about humanity as well. If nature demands that everything eventually fall into chaos and disorder…then that means that we are fighting a losing battle by creating civilization in the first place. After all, civilization is merely the effective organization and coordination of the constituent individuals that make up the group. Drilling down one level further…every living organism, a mere organized collection of molecules (and, further down, atoms), is also fighting an uphill battle that will inevitably lead to its disintegration (aka death). Science and the Bible can both agree on Genesis 3:19: In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread, till thou return onto the ground; for out of it wast thou taken: for dust thou art, and unto dust shalt thou return.
All of this carries some interesting implications with regards to the current coronavirus outbreak. There have been some horrible microbe killers in the past: the Bubonic Plague, smallpox, malaria, polio, the Spanish Flu, etc. that killed a significant percentage of its victims. In the face of such pandemics, it clearly made sense to try to (1) contain the infected (2) limit opportunities for exposure (3) treat it / find a vaccine for it. Nobody in their right mind would rightfully think of just letting a microbe with a 25-50% kill rate spread throughout society, unchecked.
But this coronavirus is different. While annoying and sickening, it is generally not a killer for those under 60 in good health. Aside from an annoying quarantine and illness that will certainly disrupt life – but (for now) not cause permanent damage in the host – it will be a miniscule bump in the road in most victims’ lives within this demographic. Of course, that could easily change when (rather than if) it mutates. Indeed, that is exactly what happened with the last worldwide pandemic of significant consequence: the Spanish flu of 1918-19. It came in three waves: (1) March 1918 (2) fall of 1918 (3) winter and spring of 1919. It was the second wave that caused the greatest number of deaths and suffering associated with this virus. Why? Because the virus had mutated since the first wave – just in time for the onset of the next cold weather season. But something interesting had occurred between those two outbreaks – especially in Copenhagen, Denmark: those who survived the less lethal first outbreak had developed immunity when the deadlier round 2 came around. It didn’t affect them! And by the time the virus mutated again for round 3…it was less lethal again. Mother Nature had taken her proper course, and nothing was left for the virus except its irrelevance and death.
And so, perhaps the Spanish Flu pandemic contains a potential solution – albeit heartless and brutal to some – for the current coronavirus pandemic that has not even been considered: let it spread! Let nature take its course. Let the virus follow its own path in accordance with the second law of thermodynamics…until it, too, wipes itself out of existence after humanity has developed an immunity to it. Quarantine / home isolate the elderly, those with weakened immune systems, those most at risk, etc. while the virus is still spreading. Admittedly, it may take months. But, in the absence of an effective vaccine, it may actually be the best way forward in the long run if a significant percentage of society is doomed to contract the virus anyway. Why fight a lagging, losing, uphill battle that will ultimately end with the virus winning either way? Why tank every aspect of society to produce nothing but global economic collapse, mass hysteria and panic, and a complete loss of freedom in exchange for (a supposed) security from this virus? To me, it makes no sense. It is, fundamentally, a fight against nature – that ultimately proceeds exactly like the second law of thermodynamics predicts it would: a wasted expenditure of energy that produces nothing but societal chaos!
Of course, the other option is to go the other extreme – the way of China and other governments accustomed to socially planned economies and societies that have no problem declaring martial law and completely controlling society. That would not go well within the United States. This country and its citizens are completely unprepared for that type of prolonged response. But perhaps there is something to China’s approach: they have (if the news media reports are accurate) effectively managed to curb the virus by employing some ultra stringent measures to completely contain society from the very beginning. Is the United States prepared to do the same? Italy – and several other countries in Europe – seem to have adopted some sort of middle ground. It’s clearly not working – and they are suffering horribly, as a result. Which way to go? Do the minimal and let nature proceed…or completely sacrifice every aspect of society to contain the virus?
I am no epidemiologist, but I do have at least some familiarity with the fundamental laws of nature. And since nature always seems to have the last laugh anyway, perhaps there is an important lesson to be taken from the second law of thermodynamics to resolve the current crisis. If nothing else, it presents an interesting option.